The realm of "uncertainty" is another fork in the road where traditional and eXtreme project management part company.
Traditional Project Management (TPM) is anchored in the Newtonian belief that the world is stable and that we can actually know enough to do accurate planning. This may be true for projects that feature low complexity and low change, especially in cases where you have a high experience factor going for you: you've done the same project several times and have been able to establish a cadre of repeatable and reliable practices, e.g., building another McDonald's hamburger restaurant. I call these "cookie cutter projects." (By the way, how many cookie cutter projects do you work on? I'll bet very few.)
In stable project environments, the operating assumption is that the plan is correct. And the role of the Project Manager is to be true to the script by minimizing variance, often through elaborate control measures.
And this is where TPM and eXtreme project management part company. In the world of eXtreme projects (high-speed, high change, high complexity and high stress) we recognize that uncertainty reigns and reality rules. Translation: we assume the plan is fiction. Yes, we do have a plan, but regard it as inherently incorrect. That's why we continually adapt our plan to reality rather than trying to force reality to conform to fiction.
Managing for Uncertainty
TPM does a good job in identifying possible risk events and putting in place mitigation plans. So does eXtreme project management. But we go further by looking at the underlying conditions that are likely to cause variance and volatility. eXtreme projects are marinated in uncertainty. So, in practice the entire project is managed for uncertainty. It's not just an add-on exercise. Uncertainty is the project.
How do we manage for uncertainty? We do this by both anticipating and responding to it. That is,
- We proactively identify and mitigate the underlying causes of uncertainty. (See Project Uncertainty Profile below.)
- We expect the unexpected. We succeed by executing the project in small chunks, taking an iterative approach, gaining rapid feedback and adapting. And we use timeboxing as a device to force frequent business, technical, quality, scheduling and process decisions. (For a refresher on timeboxing, see the article I wrote entitled, "An Idea Whose Timebox Has Come.")
The Project Uncertainty Profile
The Project Uncertainty Profile (PUP) answers the question, how risky is this project? Compiled by the project manager with input from the team and project customers, the PUP provides an overall measure of project riskiness. Completing the PUP is a pre-condition for estimating the project.
The PUP calibrates the level of uncertainty in four critical areas:
Business uncertainty
What outside risks do we face? Namely, how strong is the competition? What could change that could have an impact on us, for better or worse? What about government regulations? How experienced are we in the target market?
Product uncertainty
What risks do we face in being able to produce the project deliverable itself? Are we pushing the state of the art? Do we have the support systems in place to deliver? How experienced are we with the thing or service we are to produce?
Project uncertainty
Do we have the ability to manage this project? The necessary funding? People? A qualified sponsor? How great is our dependency on other projects?
Organizational risk
How politically sensitive or volatile is this project? How large is the stakeholder population? What priority is the project given?
For instance, in a politically charged project, many man months can be consumed in securing decisions and getting buy-in.
The Project Uncertainty Profile
--- BUSINESS UNCERTAINTY ---
|
| | Factor | | Rating |
| Clear, measurable | Ultimate Business Benefit | Unclear, not measurable | |
| Weak | Competition | Entrenched | |
| Local | Customer Distribution | Global | |
| Established | Customer Needs | Little Known | |
| Veteran | Our Market Experience | New comer | |
| Stabilized | Government Regulations | In flux | |
| Low | Financial Exposure | High | |
| Flexible | Schedule | Fixed | |
| Stable | Market Conditions | Volatile | |
--- PRODUCT (DELIVERABLE) UNCERTAINTY ---
| Clear | Functional Requirements | Unclear | |
| Clear | Quality/Performance Reqs. | Unclear | |
| Stable | Core Technology | Volatile | |
| In place | Support Systems & Processes | Non-existent | |
| Clear | Completion Criteria | Unclear | |
| Low | Technical Complexity | High | |
| Excellent | Track Record w/similar product | Poor | |
--- PROJECT UNCERTAINTY ---
| Reliable | Outside Vendors | Unreliable | |
| Low | Complexity of the Project | High | |
| Attainable | Project Imperatives | Unattainable | |
| Highly experienced | Team Member Expertise | Inexperienced | |
| Dedicated to this project | Team Member Availability | Multiple projects | |
| High | PM's Control over Resources | Low | |
| Expert | Project Manager's Experience | Novice | |
| Dedicated | Project Manager's Availability | Multiple Projects | |
| Mandated | Project Mgmt. Methodology | Agile | |
| In place | Project Mgmt. Infrastructure | Not established | |
| Satisfying | Likely Quality of Life on Project | Dissatisfying | |
| Adequate | Incentives Available | Not available | |
| Low | Dependency on other projects | High | |
| Excellent | Track record with similar projects | Poor | |
| Clear | Sponsor Identification | Unclear | |
| Immediate | Sponsor Availability | Delayed | |
| High | Sponsor's Influence/Reach | Low | |
| Achievable | Win Conditions: Must Meet, Optimize | Unachievable | |
--- ORGANIZATIONAL UNCERTAINTY ---
| Low | Political Sensitivity | High | |
| Fast | Approval cycles | Slow | |
| Low | No. of Stakeholder Groups | High | |
| Low | No. of individual Stakeholders | High | |
| Low | Crucial Stakeholders' Support | High | |
| Strong | Stakeholder Participation | Weak | |
| Conducive | Team's Working Conditions | Distracting | |
| Co-located | Location of Team | Dispersed | |
| Stable | Project Portfolio Priorities | Unstable | |
The PUP will provide you and the team with the context within which you will plan and estimate the project in answer to eXtreme Project Management's Business Question 2: What will it take to get it? The PUP is the pre-requisite to estimating. In absence of having completed the PUP any estimate of schedule, budget, return on investment, technical feasibility, expected quality is unfounded, if not laughable. In practice, the PUP is used as a basis to mitigate the underlying conditions of risk where feasible.
For instance, two major causes of schedule slippage are geographically dispersed teams, compounded by team members who are working on multiple projects. Any estimate of schedule needs to be considered in light of these realities. As such, the PUP points to conditions that, when possible to mitigate, can reduce variance and increase the level predictability.
Sponsors and other key stakeholders rarely understand or want to face up to the extent of project riskiness. The PUP is a real eye opener, one that gives the team, sponsor and other stakeholders a reality check, if not a wakeup call. Your job as eXtreme project manager is to expose the realities facing the project so that stakeholders can make informed decisions.
eXtremely yours,
Doug
P.S.: For the full story on eXtreme Project Management, see Doug's book on Amazon.com.
Doug DeCarlo is the author eXtreme Project Management: Using Leadership, Principles & Tools to Deliver Value in the face of Volatility. He can be reached through www.dougdecarlo.com.
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